We expect default rates will rise in both Europe and the US in 2024. For some time now, struggling companies have been kept afloat with the help of cheap funding, large government and central bank support, and economic strength, but we expect many of them will not be able to endure for much longer if this support is taken away. Already we have seen a slow upward trend in defaults in 2023 (along with an uptick in Europe with the realisation of defaults on the back of the Ukraine-Russia war). We expect this trend to continue. According to Moody’s, (as of August) default rates are now sitting at 3% in Europe and 4.8% in ... (full story)