In a hiking cycle, the 10Y rate usually keeps rising to at least match the peak in the fed funds rate. Increasing bond supply, a strong equity market, a less rate sensitive economy and high inflation are all reasons to expect a repeat Interest rates have staged an impressive rally this year with 10Y US treasury rate up 150bp since the lows in April. Even with inflation cooling off, better economic data, a smaller impact from the regional banking crisis and increased focus on the US budget deficits has led the market to price out rapid rate cuts and increased the term premia on longer dated bonds. At close to 4.75%, ... (full story)