A defining characteristic of the current economic expansion is the uncanny staying power of the consumer. In this report we explain why we are moving away from the “excess savings” measure we previously used and why we will no longer make estimates of how long excess savings will last. A year ago there was a general consensus among economists and financial markets that a recession was in the offing. Those forecasts have largely been pared, put-off or canceled altogether. To some extent the rationale for these more sanguine assessments is a recognition of the uncanny staying power of the consumer. That consumer ... (full story)