The U.S. Federal Reserve’s latest economic projections suggest policymakers are increasingly confident the U.S. economy could achieve a soft landing in 2024. However, we see several macroeconomic risks that could challenge that outlook. With growing economic and political headwinds this fall, as well as still-sticky inflation trends, we believe the outlook the Fed presented may be optimistic. The U.S. unemployment rate will likely need to rise further than the Fed forecasts as the central bank seeks to achieve its price stability goal. Updated projections paint a brighter picture Although Fed Chair Jerome Powell at ... (full story)