Private-sector wage growth in the UK barely increased in level terms between June and July, and alternative data from payrolls showed a second consecutive fall in median pay. We still expect a rate hike next week but with unemployment rising too, this latest data doesn't scream a need to lift rates much further. The UK wage numbers are more dovish than they look at first glance. At headline level, regular pay growth stayed at 7.8% on a 3M/YoY basis - no surprises there. But drill down and if you strip out the public sector, private sector pay barely increased in level terms between June and July. And if we look at ... (full story)