This morning has brought some news which will probably be welcome at the Bank of England if nowhere else. Retail sales volumes are estimated to have fallen by 1.2% in July 2023 following a rise of 0.6% in June 2023 (revised from an increase of 0.7%). From their point of view it provides a potential real world impact from tighter monetary policy and higher interest-rates. It also will fit with the part of their psyche which agrees with the head of the Kiwi central bank. After all they are pack animals. Of course a weak retail sales number does not on its own mean recession as it is an erratic series. Also the pleasure ... (full story)