US: An Economic Puzzle

From cmegroup.com Watch this video at https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1235858-us-an-economic-puzzle.

U.S. price and jobs data releases are likely to create both confusion and debate over the course of the economy and inflation over the next several months. Here are four factors to consider. First, there are no signs of a U.S. recession in the jobs data we have seen in 2023. The emergence of a no-recession consensus has worked, at least so far, to push long-term Treasury bond yields higher. Second, while the U.S. labor market is trending a little lower on monthly job creation, jobs growth is still robust when compared to pre-pandemic patterns. At the same time, the unemployment rate is sticky, below 4%. Part of the challenge of analyzing the unemployment rate is that while job creation may be slowing a bit, the labor force, which is the denominator of this ratio, is not growing much at all. That means that even small increases in monthly jobs creation can keep the unemployment rate very low.