The August Monetary Policy Statement should be another “steady as she goes” affair. The RBNZ communicated a strong on-hold stance in the last Monetary Policy Statement in May and in the subsequent OCR review. The overall data flow would likely not have significantly shifted that stance in either direction. That’s not to say there won’t be changes to their forecasts. Key factors pushing down inflation pressures in their forecasts will be: – Weaker March quarter GDP: The RBNZ’s starting point for the level of excess capacity in the economy will be adjusted down to reflect that March quarter GDP was weaker than they ... (full story)