Following the RBA’s decision to keep rates on hold at 4.1% for a second consecutive month, we now see only one more increase this cycle, taking the cash rate target to a peak of 4.35% (previously 4.6%). In terms of timing, we see this as likely at the November meeting, following the release of the Q3 CPI. With recent data showing a clear trend of easing inflation and slower demand growth, the probability that 4.1% is the peak for the cycle is growing – particularly given the RBA’s stated intention to seek to maintain the pandemic-era gains in the labour market. However, a number of near-term upside pressures remain ... (full story)