As summer heats up, it's hard to tell whether the beach ball is half full or half empty. Although a near-record-low unemployment rate underscores the strength of the economy, Federal Reserve officials keep pointing to the potential problems of a tight labor market and inflation that hasn't yet fallen back to the central bank's 2% target. All this has the Fed poised to further tighten monetary policy—but given the rapid pace of past rate hikes, there's some concern that the Fed could overdo it, potentially causing a recession or triggering another round of problems in the banking sector. Meanwhile, there are signs of ... (full story)