We understand that markets have already decided for the Federal Reserve (Fed) regarding what it is going to do with rates during the July 25-26 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Markets are betting 93.6% to 6.4% (as of 11:00 AM ET on Friday, July 14, 2023) that the Fed is going to increase the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (bps). However, we are still not convinced, and we may have to recognize that we were wrong… but we still have some time to prepare. If the Fed is true to its long-professed ‘data-dependent’ mantra, and we hope it is, then it is very difficult to justify another increase in the ... (full story)