The Federal Reserve’s next move after an anticipated pause is more likely to be a cut than a hike due to already restrictive rates, falling inflation and a recessionary economy. Pause talk is in the air – with the market pricing in only a ~30% chance of a rate rise at next week’s Fed meeting – before further hikes. But the world, and the Fed, could look sufficiently different even by late summer that the risk calculus starts to favor looser monetary policy. There are three main factors that could alter the Fed’s decision-making framework and prompt it to step back from its hiking cycle after a hiatus: • The Fed very ... (full story)