Several risk factors have receded, and the main risk near term is the TLTRO expiry. Rates range trade in outright terms, while curve steepening continues relentlessly and spreads tighten. Tenor basis spreads await the TLTRO expiry. Big picture: Risk sentiment continues to hold up. Labour markets remain strong in the US as well as in the Euro area, keeping consumer income growth and thus also spending growth high. The tug of war is between hard and soft data, with the latter in many cases pointing to recession and the former staying resilient. Economic surprises were mostly on the downside in the Euro area in May and ... (full story)