The focus is squarely on the Federal Reserve today. There is nearly universal agreement that it will lift the target by 25 bp. The market is inclined to see the shift as a sign that the Fed is nearing the end of its tightening cycle, and sees, at most, one more quarter-point hike. Despite the Fed's warnings, including in the December FOMC minutes, about the premature easing of financial conditions, the market has done precisely that. Moreover, the market remains convinced that a rate cut will be delivered by the end of the year. The key issue then is the Fed's response. Reiterating the December dot plot or claiming ... (full story)