This continues to be one of the more confusing economic environments in history. Every other day the narrative switches between an imminent recession and a soft landing. Neither outcome would surprise me at this point. Some economic indicators are screaming slowdown while others are giving an all-clear. This state of limbo is making it difficult to know what’s going to happen. I don’t know what’s going to happen with the U.S. economy but it feels like there are a handful of economic numbers that will tell us how things go this year. This is not an exhaustive list but gets us pretty close to telling the story of the ... (full story)