Key points • Business confidence plummeted to a fresh record low in December, down 13 points to -70. Expected own activity fell from -14 to -26. • The RBNZ appears to have achieved shock value with its sharp increase in the OCR, hawkish forecasts, and warning of deliberate recession in 2023. Many indicators are around Global Financial Crisis (GFC) lows. • Inflation pressures remain intense. Wage expectations jumped. {chart} {table} Well, if the Reserve Bank was going for shock value, they appear to have gotten it. The fall in business confidence is certainly dramatic, but while it’s at a fresh record low, it would be ... (full story)