There is more uncertainty than usual around the ECB’s December monetary policy decision and also more issues to decide. We think the ECB will surprise hawkishly by hiking by 75bp for the third time in a row. After the ECB hinted that it may slow down the pace of its interest rate increases going forward at the October meeting and November inflation data surprising to the downside, many – including financial markets – seemed to conclude that a 50bp rate hike at the December meeting (15 December) was as good as a done deal. We disagree (see more on our arguments, why we think the ECB could surprise with another 75bp ... (full story)