This week sees the US retail sales release which is likely to cause some volatility on an out-of-consensus print. The miss in US inflation data last week resulted in immediate re-pricing of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision for December. After the decision short-term interest rate markets now price in over 70% chance of a 50bps rate hike. Prior to the decision, the market was expecting a 75 bps rate hike in December. It was this miss in inflation that allowed US stocks to rally out of last Thursday’s weak CPI print. This was an obvious trade for those paying attention to the data and key narratives. So, ... (full story)