With the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow-cast for Q3 at 2.4% (as of September 30), the US economy may be coming out of the technical recession that started in Q1. At the same time, the US Treasury yield curve is still inverted, indicating that there is more to come next year. This suggests that we may be facing two recessions caused by the same factors, one technical and one official – i.e. approved by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) – interrupted by an episode of positive GDP growth that may have started in Q3. What are the common causes behind these two recessions, why do we expect a second ... (full story)