The S&P Global/CIPS UK Composite PMI fell below the crucial 50.0 no-change mark during August for the first time in 18 months. A severe and accelerated drop in UK manufacturing output was joined by a near-stalled service sector. Although the survey data are currently consistent with the economy contracting at a modest quarterly rate of 0.1%, deteriorating trends in order books and future expectations suggest the risk of a recession has risen. However, the survey data also suggest the incoming prime minister will not only be dealing with an economy that is facing a heightened risk of recession, but also a ... (full story)