On the surface, today's UMichigan consumer sentiment print came well above expectations (as one would expect with the midterm elections just 3 months away): the headline sentiment index jumped to 55.1 from 51.5 and beating expectations of 52.5, driven by a surge in expectations from a decade low of 47.3 to 54.9, beating expectations of 48.5 even as current conditions actually dropped from 58.1 to 55.5, missing expectations of 57.8. {chart} Contrary to expectations, it was actually Republican and Independent sentiment that improved in July, while Democrat sentiment tumbled to a fresh two-year low. {chart} While ... (full story)