The US ISM manufacturing index didn't fall as much as feared, but it is still clearly on a softening path. The headline dipped to 52.8 from 53.0 (consensus 52.0) and production is in positive territory at 53.5, but this is below the 54.9 level in June, which also happens to be the 6M average. Sadly, we think the production story will continue to weaken in the months ahead. New orders dropped to 48 from 49.2, so below the breakeven 50 level indicating expansion/contraction. This is the second sub-50 print in a row while order backlogs slowed to the lowest level since June 2020. The chart below shows the strong ... (full story)