World real GDP likely declined in the second quarter of 2022, but this expected outcome is not inevitably the beginning of a global recession. Entering 2022, the global economy was headed for a major slowdown. As inflation raged, central banks accelerated the pace of monetary policy tightening, aiming to slow the growth of aggregate demand and calm price pressures. Two shocks intervened—Russia's invasion of Ukraine on 24 February and lockdowns in mainland China in response to a March-April surge in COVID-19 cases. These shocks further disrupted supply chains, adding to cost pressures. At the same time, soaring energy ... (full story)