We have further front-loaded our rate track, and now see the cash rate target at 2.35% by November (was 2.1%) and peaking at 2.6% in February (previously mid 2023). • Our view is that the RBA will continue to rapidly adjust rates towards neutral (around 2.5%), hiking by another 50bps in August and following up with 25bp in increases in September, November and February. • The rapid increase in rates and higher prices faced by households will begin to moderate consumer demand and we now see below-trend GDP growth of 1.8% in 2023 and 2024. • We see inflation peaking in both headline and trimmed-mean terms in Q4 at 7.2% ... (full story)