Here are some things I think I am thinking about: 1) Inflation has peaked. Back in January I said inflation had peaked. This morning’s Core PCE data seals the deal for me – it looks like inflation peaked in February. So, I missed it by a month. Still, this one looks very clear to me from here on out. The year over year comparisons become much flatter as the year goes on. By the end of the year a lot of the underlying inflation components are going to be negative. Given all the broad economic weakness and potential downside in housing, my baseline is that inflation is still going to be well above the Fed’s 2% target ... (full story)