We’ve revised our outlook for full-year U.S. GDP growth to roughly 2%, down from around 3.5% at the start of the year.1 Three factors that will likely persist through 2022 drive our downgrade: Financial conditions have tightened to a level that likely restricts growth. Most of the tightening has come through higher lending rates. Falling equity markets have also contributed. We believe conditions have tightened significantly more than what’s implied by the market’s current pricing of future federal funds rate increases. Hikes eventually might even go beyond the neutral policy rate (when the Fed’s key interest rate ... (full story)