We have lowered our GDP forecast for this year and next, upped our near-term inflation outlook and incorporated a new, front loaded rate track for the RBA. Our outlook for the labour market is broadly unchanged in the near term, with unemployment expected to continue to decline and wage growth to pick up, but we have increased the unemployment rate profile further out. GDP is now expected to grow by 2.7% over 2022 (was 3.4%) and a below-trend 1.8% in 2023 (was 2.1%). We expect growth of around 2.0% in 2024. After incorporating the base effects of the national accounts, the key changes to our activity outlook come ... (full story)