Online betting markets suggest Boris Johnson is the clear favorite to win today’s no-confidence vote. That should support the pound in the immediate term by removing uncertainty, though it may be bad news for the currency in the longer term. The current policy of brinkmanship over Northern Ireland and Brexit generates conflict with the European Union and threatens trade. It would be easier for an incoming leader to back down. However, monetary policy is likely to be the primary driver of cable, no matter who wins. Odds from betting on politics should be taken with a large pinch of salt. In markets terms, they reflect ... (full story)