It has been a while since I updated the newsletter, but the recent developments in markets have increased my conviction that the demand side is waning month by month currently. Forward looking indicators such as IFO expectations and Philly Fed new orders hint of a very weak second half of the year for manufacturing and even services may start to suffer because of a weakening purchasing power of consumers. The weekly earnings data for US consumers is now running below trend for the first time since the Covid-pandemic hit and this ought to be the reason why inventories (adjusted for inflation) are starting to build ... (full story)