US inflation is expected to fall from a whopping 8.5% y/y to a (still very high) 8.1%. On the monthly basis the consensus is for a 0.2% gain compared with 1.2% previously. If this is the case, it’s likely we’ll see a slurry of ‘inflation has peaked’ headlines, and the dollar may even move lower as the Fed are presumably under less pressure to take runaway inflation. However, today we’ll take a bigger picture view on some of the dynamics behind inflation to gauge the strength of its underlying current. A well-known contributing factor to global inflation has been supply chain disruptions. We are therefore keeping a ... (full story)