The ECB’s signals have strongly favoured a rate hike already in July. We think the economy will keep growing despite the high uncertainty, with core inflation staying above the ECB’s target and a total of seven ECB rate hikes by the end of 2023. • We now think the ECB will start its rate hikes already at the July meeting, followed by further moves in September and December this year. • We see four additional moves in 2023. • We see a risk that the ECB could hike rates at all four remaining meetings this year, as the financial markets are currently largely pricing in, but going into 2023, the risk picture starts to ... (full story)