Tight labor markets, supply-chain disruptions, commodity price pressure from the Russia-Ukraine conflict lead to elevated prices in March and we expect the inflation print to support the Fed’s desire to expedite monetary tightening. Highlights: • Headline inflation forecast: 8.5% y/y (consensus: 8.4%) • Core inflation forecast: 6.5% y/y (consensus: 6.6%) • The March inflation print will support 50bp rate hikes Inflation to peak. Barring significant further increases in commodity prices, March will likely prove to be the peak for inflation this year as coming readings will be compared to the hefty price increases in ... (full story)