Yesterday, in our discussion of the "battle of the yield curves", where we made it clear only the 2s10s matters due to its infallible recessionary signaling, we pointed out that while on average it takes 12-18 months from inversion to recession during a Fed hiking cycle... {table} ... not only has the Fed never before started a rate hiking cycle when inflation was already 7.9% (suggesting that the onset of a recession will be much faster than usual this time), but that the debate over a yield curve inversion (and thus recession) was already moot, as the 2Y forward 2s10s had inverted and on Thursday the inversion ... (full story)