Myriad economic surprises may be in the cards for 2022. The assumptions underlying currently high inflation, low unemployment, and interest rate outlooks are very fragile. Will the pace of growth slow more than expected? Will inflation remain elevated? Could there be geo-political surprises? How would the Federal Reserve (Fed) react to a change in the economic environment? Will there be a “soft landing” for the economy? Before tackling these questions, we will review what constitutes the current market consensus, then we will explore the fragility of this consensus and review how changing dynamics might influence the ... (full story)