Traders are offloading bonds like hot potatoes and sending yields higher. And they’re pushing yields so high and so fast we had wondered if they’re betting on the Fed hiking by 50 bps at their March meeting. Yet market pricing says otherwise. According to Fed funds futures, there’s just over a 90% chance of a single 25 bps hike in March compared to just over a 5% chance of a 50 bps. Even by May the odds of that second hike are just below 50% hike. Yet by the June meeting there’s a 45% chance of rates sitting at the 75 – 100 target range, so there’s the potential for a couple of hikes lurking in there somewhere, even ... (full story)