Rapid and broad-based growth in November sees our forecast for the fourth quarter of 2021 revised up to 1.2 per cent. Our first estimate for the first quarter of 2022 is 0.6 per cent. • November’s stronger than expected reading took output above its pre-Covid level, though still around 2½-4 per cent below its 2015-2019 trend. • Supply constraints do not appear to have been holding back manufacturing and construction, which saw their strongest growth rates in 8 months before the onset of the omicron variant. The main economic headwind at the end of 2021 and start of 2022 has been the omicron variant of Covid-19, and ... (full story)