We have had the first big data US releases to start the year and while they are a little softer than hoped at the headline level the details show an economy that was in great shape in the lead up to the holiday season. Firstly, the ISM manufacturing index dropped to 58.7 from 61.1 whereas the consensus was for a slightly stronger 60.0 figure with optimism largely centered on good regional indicators. However, the details are certainly stronger than the headline implies since there were only very modest declines in production and orders while employment actually rose to 54.2 from 53.3 and the backlog of orders ... (full story)