The principal source of concern for the UK economy is now the omicron variant of Covid-19. This could add further constraints to demand and supply, on top of the supply shortages which became apparent during the autumn. ‘Plan B’ restrictions are likely to have a relatively small macroeconomic impact but will affect consumer-facing services in December. If the omicron variant is confirmed to pose problems for vaccine immunity it is likely to lead to a significant degree of voluntary social distancing even if the government does not impose a new lockdown. Either would affect the hospitality, transport and recreation ... (full story)