Early last month, we warned about the change in tone in the Fed’s Beige Book Reports, with the September edition saying there was a “downshift” in US economic activity over the summer. That was spot on, as captured by the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model’s dramatic downward trend for Q3 US economic growth since August. Just yesterday, the model posted its lowest Q3 estimate yet at only 0.5 percent, and that’s with nearly complete data for last quarter except for just one more update on the 27th. The Beige Book’s predictive findings are why we review it when it is out 8 times a year, as it offers “on-the-ground” insights from ... (full story)