Was the COVID recession a traditional recession in the sense that it represented the bridge from the end of one economic cycle to the start of a new economic cycle? Or, might it be more aptly thoughts of as a war that interrupted/disrupted an ongoing economic cycle? If the answer is the latter, it helps explain some of the economic and inflation data that looks eerily late-cycle. Although we do not believe the pillars are yet in place to support a 1970s-style stagflation scenario, we are clearly in a weakening growth/high inflation era that appears less “transitory” every day. See the Merriam-Webster dictionary ... (full story)