Activity data have mainly disappointed lately, while leading indicators point to a further loss of momentum for the global economy. At the same time, inflation worries continue to increase, and such worries have spilled over to central banks as well – which a while ago were almost uniformly arguing how high inflation was only transitory. The more hawkish central bank tone has not been limited to emerging markets. The first rate hike from Norges Bank was well advertised, but the 40bp hike by Poland – the first hike in almost ten years – was missed by all the 29 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Market pricing has been ... (full story)