In a Project Syndicate piece published in August 2021, my friend and former US Treasury colleague Nouriel ‘Dr Doom’ Roubini, lucidly wrote that ‘The stagflation threat is real’. Roubini’s point was that those who believe US inflation pressures and growth challenges are largely due to temporary supply bottlenecks are optimists headed for disappointment. He makes well-founded points and may be proven right. But my bet for the 2020s is on stagnation, not stagflation. Before the pandemic, I tackled the global economic outlook for the 2020s in an OMFIF commentary. I envisioned a poor outlook, bordering on stagnation. ... (full story)