Our base case scenario for this Friday's key rate decision is a 25 basis point hike to 6.75%, putting us in the middle of the consensus range of 6.50-7.00%. We see several reasons why the Central Bank of Russia has to proceed with the hiking cycle after a +225 basis point move year-to-date, but the actions from now on should be far more cautious than the previous 50-100 basis point steps. • Indeed, the current inflationary trend is a concern. After a brief plateau at 6.5% year-on-year in June-July, inflation seems to be looking up again, and based on preliminary weekly data could reach 6.7% or higher in August, as ... (full story)