With an upside surprise to June inflation, we see the National Bank of Hungary delivering a 30bp effective rate hike. The forward guidance and tone should remain unchanged, pointing to more hawkish steps in the coming months The incoming economic activity data in the past month was rather a mixed bag. But we still believe that services will provide a huge boost to GDP growth on the reopening of the economy. We see 7.4% GDP growth this year, which means clear upside potential to the NBH's forecast. This supports our call for a stronger effective rate hike in July (+30bp) compared to June (+15bp). and inflation... So ... (full story)