The dichotomy between massive stimulus efforts and the coronavirus, our preferred method of understanding the economy in such a volatile and uncertain time, has served us well. This framework was necessarily blunt and reductive; both the monetary and fiscal support for the economy and the terrible public health impact of the pandemic were towering forces that overwhelmed all historical precedents and economic theorizing. But as of this writing, we are well past the peak of each of those factors, and despite rumblings over the rest of the Biden agenda and Covid concerns when the weather turns colder, these factors ... (full story)