The dollar's bounce extended further than we expected, helped by an aggressively hawkish view of the Fed, which has seen the market price in more than one hike before the end of next year. The dollar's rally into early July left the technical indicators stretched, and we note that near-term trend reversals recently have occurred around the end of the month or US jobs report. Despite the first employment report that beat expectations in three months, US interest rates softened. In fact, the implied yield of the December 2022 Eurodollar futures contract fell four basis points. The contract traced out what appears to be ... (full story)