Like just about every country, the UK’s inflation rate jumped in April on pandemic-related base effects. The increase in headline CPI to 1.5% from 0.7% is predominantly because we’re now comparing prices to the depth of the Covid-19 crisis last year, while energy prices also received a lift last month when the regulator lifted the household electricity/gas cap by 9%. All of this, of course, has been well telegraphed, as is the anticipated rise in inflation above target later this year. We expect inflation to edge higher again next month, and reach 2% for the first time over the summer, before remaining there through ... (full story)