At the start of the year, market consensus expected the dollar to drastically depreciate in 2021. So far, that has proved to be misguided. Some, including myself, questioned it at the time, suggesting that range trading might be more likely and warning against overplaying the narrative, even if there were grounds for dollar weakness. The dollar strengthened between January and March on the back of stimulus and higher long-term rates. However, as longer US rates eased in April, the dollar depreciated. Building on this move and last week’s surprisingly weak April employment data, a new wave of rehashed arguments is ... (full story)