Does a 1.7% US Treasury yield look right after Friday's payrolls report? Our chief international economist James Knightley expects more than a million jobs to be added in the next report, and it goes on. This is a boom period for the US economy. Granted, it is all about emerging from a hole of Covid-19 induced despair, but it will still manifest a near 10% expansion of nominal GDP in the space of just one year. And that is an actual expansion; none of that annualized malarky. We chose the nominal measure of expansion purposely, as it includes inflation. So too do market rates. In that respect, we can and should ... (full story)