The sudden announcement of a lockdown will have come quite late in the day in the Bank of England's (BoE) forecasting schedule, and it’s possible that policymakers won’t have had enough time to fully adjust their numbers to account for the new restrictions. Either way, expect the Bank to give some indication of the damage, which we think could see 6-7% shaved off November’s GDP. This could see overall fourth quarter GDP dip by 1.5%, or by more than 2% if restrictions last longer than the initial early December cut-off date. We’d also expect the Bank to push back the timing of when the economy will reach its pre-virus ... (full story)